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terça-feira, março 31, 2015

Candidate-se a participar no evento da Diaspora Africanca, 9-10 Junho, Viena


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‪#‎VAS‬ is pleased to inform you about our event “African Diaspora Youth Forum in Europe” that will take place the 9-10 June 2015 in Vienna.
The aim of the Forum is in function of sharing of experiences and best practices to empower youth by building their capacity, leadership skills, responsibilities and providing access to information in policy making and project initiatives, so they can truly actively participate in our societies. The Forum is the first of its kind held in Europe and presents a significant opportunity for African leaders and youth to network and work closely together in order to coordinate international dialogue amongst important stakeholders for African development. Specifically, through panel discussions, lectures and training session, conference will tackle topics such as: access to quality jobs, entrepreneurship, economic development etc. We aim for the Forum to gather experts, leaders, change makers and 200 of young people from all around Europe – toward development of African continent, as well as better position of African youth in diaspora.
This project is supported by: UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization), the partnership of Austrian Development Cooperation/Agency (ADA) and African Diaspora Youth Network in Europe (ADYNE).
More details about us and our work can be found here
If you would like to participate, please refer to the attached Call for participants and the Application Form for more details. We would be happy to provide you with further information and reply potential questions by email (corinne@vas-oesterreich.at), if you decide to honor us with your participation.

From 2015-06-09 to 2015-06-10 at Vienna, Austria
Link: http://www.vas-oesterreich.at/youth-conference/a-d-y-c-e-2015/
Deadline: 2015-04-15
Eu participei no evento  Angolanos na Diaspora, Luanda, 2004 

domingo, março 29, 2015

Euro illusions - How wrong was that ?

Analyses of the European Single Market  and the Euro as the Single Currency, then and now, suffer from a fundamental analytical error about the sustainability of external debt denominated in Euro, a currency not controlled by the Single Currency members.

Already in 1990 (see below) the DG ECOFIN  was telling us the intra-EU external imbalances wouldn't matter within the Single Currency.  And we foolishly beleived them.  

Reality in the diverging Eurozone turned out to be radically worse: A country's CAB Current Account Deficit is financed by increases in External Debt, which has to paid by net exports, as if it was FX-denominated.

Resultado de imagem para eurozone imbalancesNot only did the external constraint not disappear, it became nearly uncontrolable as the smaller countries lost access to the traditional balance of payments adjustment instruments, like devaluation or capital controls.

In effect, for a Eurozone country, the Euro functions as a foreign currency, so its debt can be considered FX denominated.

In 2015, 25 years later, we see   intentional confusion between exiting the Euro or defaulting on debt repayment.  A weakened debtor country may be unable to repay its external debt and forced to default, regardless of whether it stays or leaves the single currency.
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Credit risk is currency-blind, so risk analysts need to be very clear eyed.

"CEC 1990: The problems arising from external current account deficits that may occur from the fixing of exchange rates before inflation rates have converged should only be of a transitional nature. After the initial adjustment period the expectations that underlie the process of wage and price formation should adjust and inflation rates should converge. However, the countries with initially high inflation might have accumulated in the mean time a considerable stock of external debt because they will have had a current account deficit in the mean time. In EMU an external debt should net create any particular problems by itself since the intra-Community balance of payments constraint will disappear. But the debt service will, of course, reduce the standard of living of the population, unless the debt has been used to finance productive investment."

Source:  CEC 1990  One Market  One Money pg 95 DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication7454_en.pdf
See also Big creditor and 16 Hong Kongs http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2012/12/the-big-creditor-and-the-16-hong-kongs.html

quinta-feira, março 26, 2015

PPP Lusofonia celebra 9 anos entre as PPP e a Crise.

Este blog PPP Lusofonia foi criado em Março 2006, 

num espírito de serviço público, para partilhar,  em português, a experiência e notícias sobre PPP e o financiamento de infraestruturas públicas,  

Com o rebentar da crise de sobre-endividamento em 2010, a Crise na Eurozone passou a ser o tema quente, e muitos dos artigos passaram a inglês, para que possam ser lidos também pelos credores internacionais.

Os dois temas  PPP e a Crise estão bastante inter-relacionados, pois os contratos PPP foram mesmo uma das grandes causas do sobre endividamento externo de Portugal.
O grande número de contratos PPP pecaram pelo excesso de quantidade e pela falta de qualidade do investimento, sobretudo pela falta de "tráfego".

Depois de 9 anos e de quase 200.000 visitas de páginas, vamos continuar a oferecer informações e opiniões sobre estes temas importantes:
  • PPPs e financiamento de projectos de infra-estrtutura
  • Gestão bancária 
  • Finanças públicas 
  • Balança de pagamentos 
  • Crise de sobre-endividamento de Portugal e da Eurozone
  • Países PALOP 
  • Oportunidades de consultoria 






Foi você que vendeu gato por lebre ?

Comissão BES/GES: Governador do BdP admite perdas para os clientes lesados
A análise de Mariana Abrantes de Sousa, economista, e Hélder de Oliveira, Ordem dos Economistas, num programa conduzido por Sandra Xavier. "Conselho Consultivo" de 25 de Março de 2015.  http://videos.sapo.pt/ac6lrryVlKyAefEMACWM
O caso dos investidores que compraram papel comercial do GES aos balcões do BES demonstra mais uma vez a importância de segregar o negócio de banca de investimento do negócio de banca comercial simples, de depósitos bancários e de crédito bancário. A desintermediação financeira é interessante, mas não é para todos. Deve ser reservada apenas para profissionais e outros investidores sofisticados.

Cabe ao supervisor bancário proteger as poupanças dos aforradores particulares comuns (widows & orphans), assegurando o seu acesso a depósitos bancários cobertos pela garantia de depósitos.

Já no caso do BPP, os aforradores ambiciosos mas inexperientes e imprudentes tinham sido levados a aplicar os seus fundos em tudo menos depósitos bancários.

O caso do papel comercial do GES vendidos pelo BES  a aforradores não
sofisticados de retalho é mais um exemplo das falhas de regulação que são a principal causa da crise financeira.  Por isso, justifica-se ser o  Fundo de Garantia de Depósitos a proteger os aforradores mais vulneráveis.

Ver mais sobre a separação de banca comercial de banca de investimento e o Glass Steagall Act de 1933 em  http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lei_Glass%E2%80%93Steagall
e outra legislação do New Deal http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2012/06/new-deal-essential-to-overcome-european.html 

segunda-feira, março 16, 2015

Folia dos Fiados - 2015

O aumento excessivo do crédito ao consumo e o sobre-endividamento das famílias portuguesas foi uma das principais causas diretas da crise financeira e da acumulação de dívida externa de Portugal.
A DECO diz que as famílias sobre endividadas estão no limite quando finalmente pedem ajuda. 
Até algumas das notícias da violência doméstica referem o desespero do sobre endividado.

Infelizmente, parece que os Reguladores, e os próprios devedores, aprenderam pouco ou nada com a má gestão da política de crédito, que é um dos poucos instrumentos de ajustamento que restam às autoridades nacionais dentro do espartilho do Mercado Único e da Moeda Única. O alerta e a recomendação de aumentar a carga fiscal do crédito ao consumo,  que tem sido repetida numerosas vezes neste blog PPP Lusofonia, nem sequer são discutidos.
O crédito ao consumo  financia sobretudo a importação de bens e serviços de luxo, e o sector das SFAC, do crédito ao consumo e dos importadores de bens de consumo duráveis é muito forte. Afinal, são esses gastos  publicitários que sustentam a comunicação social.

Por isso, a concessão de crédito a particulares voltou a crescer, especialmente no sector automóvel.
Resultado de imagem para importações
“Financiamento para a compra de automóvel explica o aumento na concessão de crédito ao consumo no arranque do ano. Praticamente metade do valor concedido pelas instituições financeiras é crédito sem fim específico.
O crédito ao consumo voltou a aumentar no arranque deste ano. Em Janeiro, face ao mesmo mês do ano passado, o montante concedido pelas instituições financeiras registou um crescimento de 15%, evolução explicada em grande parte pela maior procura por financiamento para a compra de automóveis. Contudo, a maior "fatia" destes créditos continua a ser a de empréstimos sem fim específico.” diz Jornal de Negócios

Não há crédito à exportação, mas o crédito à importação é abundante. Os importadores agradecem, e voltam a ser elogiados como grandes empresários. 
Com as taxas de juros internacionais artificialmente baixas, a FOLIA dos FIADOS voltou, e em força

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa 

domingo, março 15, 2015

Islândia prefere ficar de fora da EU

Islândia desiste da entrar na União Europeia, considerando que os seus interesses nacionais são melhor servidos fora da União.

Islândia retira candidatura de adesão à União Europeia - Globo - DN

“Iceland’s interests are better served outside the European Union,” Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, the Icelandic foreign minister, said in a letter to the European Commission and the Latvian presidency of the Council of the EU.
Iceland, along with Norway, is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), which gives it access to the EU single market. In return, Iceland must follow most areas of EU law, but it does not get a vote in deciding those laws because it is not an EU member.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/iceland-drops-eu-bid/

Mulheres na Lusofonia, 26-Março, Centro Cultural de Cascais

Encontros da Matriz Portuguesa – Esfera Femina na Lusofonia

Esfera FemininaA Matriz Portuguesa irá realizar a primeira edição dos "Encontros da Matriz Portuguesa – Esfera Femina na Lusofonia", sob os auspícios da Câmara Municipal de Cascais, em 26 de Março, no Centro Cultural de Cascais. Este encontro visa o debate e a reflexão sobre o papel e a postura da Mulher da Esfera Lusófona do novo milénio – os cargos que ocupa, as decisões que toma, os novos desafios, entre outros – com um painel de personalidades de notoriedade em várias áreas.
Ver mais em http://issuu.com/universidadefemina/docs/encontros_matriz_portuguesa_esfera_




sábado, março 14, 2015

Eurozone debt crisis - Exit, Voice, Loyalty or Default

The game creditors and borrowers play is anything but.
The socio-economic impact of a financial crisis is so great, that the debt problems are so great that they are remembered for generations.   

Even today, Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt are castigated and revered by their contrasting reactions to America's Great Depression of the 1930's.  

It is not difficult to see who will be the Herbert Hoover of the Eurozone in crisis, insisting on austerity in the face of unemployment of over 20% in some countries, and youth unemployment creating a new European lost generation

The Eurozone appears to be increasingly dysfunctional (Eurozone monster says Piketty).  Creditors and Borrowers take more and more extreme, even desperate negotiating, positions,   

Following the Hirschman model, we can see the evolution of the Eurozone crisis as  follows: 

Loyalty - Austerity:  The hapless borrowers who had been allowed to accumulate huge external debts initially agreed to adopt austerity measures.  The creditos provided some new debt and shifted the existing debt among themselves (the bailouts)

Voice - Negotiations: Giving  the enormous social costs,  borrower sought to renegoatiate and soften the austerity conditions.

Exit - The threat of exit from the Eurozone relationship is still pending, not only from desperate borrowers, but also from frustatated creditors. 

Neglect - Default:  If the relationship cannot be fixed, nor resolved in an orderly manner, there's always the neglect or  default option.  The D word !

The creditors will win as usual. But history will not see it as a  victory worth celebrating.
Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
PPP Lusofonia

Mais fácil votar com os pés - http://beijozxxi.blogspot.pt/2012/10/cada-vez-mais-facil-votar-com-os-pes.html
Der Spiegel - Power struggle in the  Eurozone http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/merkel-and-juncker-in-stand-off-over-greece-a-1023365.html#ref=nl-international

sexta-feira, março 13, 2015

Inovar é ... EXPORTAR





Existem numerosos prémio e instrumentos de apoio à inovação em Portugal e na Europa.

No Programa Horizon 2020  - The EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation
http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/ 

No Portugal 2020   http://www.portaldosincentivos.pt/index.php/portugal-2020 e https://www.portugal2020.pt/Portal2020/aprovada-estrategia-de-investigacao-e-inovacao-de-portugal-para-uma-especializacao-inteligente

Até prémios para mulheres inovadoras
http://www.scoop.it/t/eu-funds-and-project-management/p/4038784645/2015/03/11/h2020-european-union-women-innovators-prize-has-been-lunched

Resultado de imagem para exportar portugalMas a grande inovação em países estruturalmente deficitários como Portugal é mesmo EXPORTAR.
E mais.  As exportações são a única saída para a crise de sobre-endividamento.  É essencial exportar para pagar a divida externa. Sem exportações não haverá reembolso, sobretudo como já estamos no limite dos cortes ao consumo de bens essenciais, e não conseguimos limitar as importações de bens não-essenciais,  como os carros de luxo, dentro do Mercado Único da UE.

A grande questão é mesmo:  Quais sãos os prémios e os apoios financeiros e não-financeiros à exportação de bens e serviços dos países  deficitários?

Onde estão os programas de apoio à exportação de bens e serviços portugueses ?
Onde estão os programas de Supplier Diversity na Europa, os apoios aos pequenos fornecedores europeus?

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
PPP Lusofonia 
Ver   http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2014/11/ged-ttip-and-supplier-diversity-in.html

The really big business innovation in some countries is ... EXPORTS! 
Where are the prizes and support programs for aspiring exporters ?

quarta-feira, março 11, 2015

Eurogroup pressures fail to resolve Eurozone problem

Negociações na Grécia, prefácio do "Roteiros IX" e Belmiro sai da Sonae
A análise de Mariana Abrantes de Sousa, economista, e Hélder de Oliveira, Ordem dos Economistas, num programa conduzido por Sandra Xavier. "Conselho Consultivo" de 11 de Março de 2015.


The European financial media repeats ipsis verbis the creditors' negotiating pressures and accusations of wasting time on the the weakest debtor - Greece.  These same creditors were quite willing to do business with Greece back in 2006-7.  Some,  like France , who made the initial bad loans to Greece, and others, like Germany, who has taken over the lead creditor position, are certainly within their rights to bring political and public pressure to bear on the hapless debtors, but this agressive negotiating  tactic will not necessarily contribute to a sustainable solution to the Eurozone debt problem.

If this were only a Greek problem, we would be less worried.  If debtors like Greece could be pressured to tighten their belt still further, cutting the minimum wage to EUR 400/month, below the poverty level, instead of increasing it, would it increase their external debt repayment capacity to satisfy their external creditors?  Would it eliminate the intra-Eurozone economic imbalances?

Not necessarily,  economists would say.  What would boost debt repayment capacity would be to increase exports of goods and services, which depends on many other factors beyond wage costs. Lowering wages below the poverty level would probably require more spending on a minimum humanitarian safety net, which in Europe is done at the national level, and thus more local taxes.

 But the creditor posturing is in the hands of politicians and lawyers, who prefer to ignore basic international economics and finance.  All is fair in the, highly imperfect European Union, and an equitable solution to the Eurozone imbalances and debt problems is not on the agenda.

The mis-information  is surreal.  Some even argue that Greece has more generous social benefits than Germany? Greece and Spain both unemployment of under 25-year olds of over 50 % in November 2014  (seven times the levels of Germany. (7.1%). Unemployed Greek workers lose access to health care and  a huge number of Greek families cannot afford basic public services such as electricity.
If Greece is so much more generous, what do the net migration flows show?
Are Germans turning into "benefits tourists" and  and migrating to "generous and sunny" Greece?
Hardly. 

terça-feira, março 10, 2015

Can this currency be saved ? Look to Iceland and to Cyprus

Resultado de imagem para iceland flagWhile the Eurogroup creditors continue in denial,  it would be useful to review the lessons from Icelande as outlined in an interesting article.  Splitting banks not into good bank /bad bank but rather into domestic bank/foreign bank, and to impose capital controls.

The two biggest threats to the EURO are
(1)  the persistent divergence in the trade balances among the Eurozone partners which lack balance-of-payments adjustment mechanisms and
(2) the co-mingling of risk among local and cross border depositors no longer distinguished by the currency of denomination.

When the corner shopkeeper faces the same risks in his  local bank deposits as do the speculative investors from the other side of the continent who move millions at the speed of a click, we are on very thin ice indeed.

Leave it to Iceland, to see the danger and to do what urgently needs to be done elsewhere.
If the Single Currency is to be  saved.

"Here is a lesson from Iceland. In October 2008 the Icelandic government acted on a bank run by forcing the dysfunctional banks, by then lacking liquidity, into receivership, splitting their operation in two. Instead of the classic split into a good bank/bad bank the domestic operations were consolidated in a New bank with the foreign operations left in the estate of the Old failed bank; in effect a split into a good domestic bank and a bad foreign one. Some weeks later, capital controls were put in place, forcing investors to stay put and shoulder the risk.
An aside on the Icelandic capital controls: they came into being with full support of the International Monetary Fund, IMF because the foreign currency reserves were not enough to meet demand. This is a very different situation from Cyprus where capital controls were put in place for the banks to hold on to deposits, as would be the case if capital controls were used in Greece.
Source:  http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/the-good-the-bad-and-the-foreign-icelandic-lesson-for-stabilising-the-greek-banks/comment-page-1/#comment-70206 

Cyprus - In recovery, but deep scars remain  
In retrospect, it is clear that European leaders, international creditors and bank regulators could have done more to limit the economic upheaval caused by seizing portions of depositors’ money above the level of 100,000 euros covered by deposit insurance, a threshold equivalent to roughly $105,000 at the current exchange rate. 
Source: "http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/business/international/as-cyprus-recovers-from-banking-crisis-deep-scars-remain.html 

quinta-feira, março 05, 2015

quarta-feira, março 04, 2015

Procedimentos contributivos da Segurança Social são opacos e incompreensíveis



http://videos.sapo.pt/l5fq7Zz5HlKHkAgaFoHS

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa:  "A Segurança Social não está a trabalhar bem"
Os comentadores do ETV  - Mariana Abrantes de Sousa, economista, Hélder de Oliveira, Ordem dos Economistas, e Jorge Ribeirinho Machado, professor da AESE, analisam a polémica de Passos com a Segurança Social, e a proposta de Isabel dos Santos para a fusão entre o BPI e o BCP, num programa conduzido por Sandra Xavier. "Conselho Consultivo" de 4 de Março de 2015.

Este caso deve colocar os códigos e procedimentos contributivos sob escrutínio, que bem merecem. Outros contribuintes recebem cartas com coimas sobre coimas, com penhoras automáticas, e esta dívida prescreveu?







Call for the 2015 Public-Private Partnerships (P3) Impact Award - 30 April



:
Concordia and the Institute for Business in Society (IBiS) at University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business announced that the US Secretary of State’s Office of Global Partnerships will become an organizational partner in the inaugural launch of the P3 Impact Award. The award recognizes and honors leading public-private partnerships (P3s) that are improving communities around the world. For this award, a P3 refers to any cross-sector collaboration that features public, private, NGO or nonprofit organizations addressing societal problems.

“The P3 Impact Award intends to spark a new generation of partnerships for sustainable and scalable solutions,” said Natalie Pregibon, Director of P3 Intelligence, Concordia’s research division. “Similar to the Secretary’s Office of Global Partnerships, at Concordia, we believe that partnerships move us closer to solving the world’s most intractable problems – and we are thrilled to have them join us in recognizing today’s leaders in this space.”
“By shedding light on successful partnership models around the world, we hope that this award will invoke others to promote change through partnerships,” said Deputy Special Representative Thomas Debass from the Secretary’s Office of Global Partnerships.
“The P3 model is unique in that it highlights the innovation and value created when partners from various sectors work together to address global challenges,” said Professor Mary Margaret Frank, an academic director of IBiS. “Our award intends to highlight leading practices that are sustainable, scalable, and more impactful than traditional approaches.”
Applicants must meet the definition for a “public-private partnership,” which refers to any cross-sector collaboration that features public, private, NGO or nonprofit organizations addressing societal problems.

Award Criteria
  • Strength of the cross-sector partnership
  • Measurable impacts
  • Economic and/or social benefits
  • Improved service delivery
  • Innovative features
  • Financial effectiveness
  • Scalability/replicability

The P3 Impact Award aims to raise awareness and develop meaningful content on impactful and leading practices in the P3 arena, by highlighting the stories of top partnerships each year. The competition highlights leading practices, delivers practical learning, and generates a database of information relevant to P3s.
The P3 Impact Award will be presented at the Concordia Summit held on September 2015. A publication outlining leading practices and actionable insights from the top applicants will be produced to serve as a tool to inform future P3s. Award winners will receive a weeklong Darden Executive Education course, international publicity, and the opportunity to showcase their partnership.  At least one winner will be selected from an international pool of applicants by a panel of esteemed judges.

The US Department of State Secretary’s Office of Global Partnerships (S/GP) is the entry point for collaboration between the U.S. Department of State, the public and private sectors, and civil society.

The Darden Institute for Business in Society (IBiS) of the University of Virginia aims to be a leading global catalyst and convener of thought, information and action at the interface of business and society 

Concordia aims to enhance the scale and effectiveness of public-private partnerships (P3s). Guided by a global network of advisers and a robust research program, Concordia helps organizations maximize the impact of their P3s. Our mission is to identify new avenues of collaboration for governments, businesses, and nonprofits by convening global leaders and developing new research products. Concordia promotes effective public-private collaboration to create a more prosperous and sustainable future.

segunda-feira, março 02, 2015

Green Business Week - Green Climate Fund

Green Business Week Logo
Logo – Green Climate Fund

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa vai falar sobre o novíssimo Fundo Verde do Clima na conferência

Green Business Week / Semana de Negócios Verdes, Lisboa 
Data:       Terça-feira, 3-Março-2015, 12h
Local:      AIP Centro de Congressos de Lisboa, à Junqueira
Inscrições:  http://greenbusinessweek.fil.pt/green-climate-fund/

Apenas São Tomé e Principe e Timor-Leste já designaram um responsável governamental para coordenar as politicas e projectos de combate à mudança climática e as suas consequências negativas.
Guiné-Bissau está entre os 10 países extremamente vulneráveis à mudança climática. 

VER a apresentação em http://pt.slideshare.net/marianaabrantes169/abrantes-2015-gcf-climate-finance-v2f 
VER http://www.gcfund.org/readiness/designations.html  e
http://reliefweb.int/map/world/world-climate-change-vulnerability-index-2014 
preview

Debt Workout 201- Divide and conquer in the Eurozone crisis





While many economists, specialists in international trade and finance, conclude that the crisis of excess indebtedness in the  Eurozone is a collective problem,  due in good measure to shortcomings in the design and implementation of the Single Currency, the creditors and their lawyers insist on blaming indidiual hapless borrowers who've lost control of their debt liabilities.

This, too, is a traditional sovereign credit workout strategy.  A creditor  places all the responsibility on the ONE particularly foolish or particularly recalcitrant borrower, convincing the other borrowers to isolate them.  This frees the creditor country from having to undertake any of its own adjustment.

Lawyers will litigate for all the adjustment and rebalancing costs to be borne by the individual debtor/deficit country, the more defenseless the better. 

Economists know that it takes two to rebalance and reduce the unsustainable deficits AND the unsustainable surpluses: the debtor  yes, but also the creditor.

Historians can show that inequitable rebalancing and credit workout solutions, ensure  recurrent intenational payment crises (plural) and even wars. Where gun-ships in the harbour would take over the collections of customs duties, creditors now threaten to cut off access to international bank liquidity facilities.

Resultado de imagem para tsunami
We can even say that the problems of  over indebtedness and accumulation of unsustainable external debt go well beyond the Eurozone, since we've seen them  other countries such as Iceland, Latin America, Asia, etc. Excessive lending comes mainly from the TSU-MONEYS of hot money flowing from country to country, at the speed of a click and unimpeded by capital controls.

The "problem" only  manifests itself when the inflows stop suddenly and reverse into sudden outflows, but it really starts much earlier.  And regulators have repeatedly failed to prevent these TSU-MONEYS, and even promote them with poorly designed financial regulations and loose lending policies which facilitate the creation of assets bubbles  with their inevitable crashes.

And enormous suffering is had by all (the littlest people). 

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa 
PPP Lusofonia

Read more on
TSU-MONEYS http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2014/05/tsu-money-vai-e-vem.html
and TSU-MONEY alerts http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2013/03/tsu-money-alert.html
on  balance of payment imbalances, bubbles and crashes by Pettis and Kindleberger   http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2015/02/pettis-on-payments-imbalances-and.html
and on games lenders and borrowers play in advanced Debt Workout 201  http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2015/02/debt-workout-201-parte-1-entre-espada-e.html